Price and Fundamentals – 7/17/2018 – E124

FUTURES – NETWORK STATS – MINING – MARKET SIZE – SOFTWARE – LIGHTNING

In addition to the usually Bitcoin fundamental analysis, in this episode I discuss the gold market and price. What’s the future have in store for sound money like bitcoin and gold?


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PRICES

Price: $6717  | 1 finney: $0.67

Daily 200 SMA: $8917

Mayer Multiple: 0.75

FUTURES

Okex Futures: (Sep) $6742 (spread $25)

CME Futures: (Jul) $6715 (Sep) $6725 (open interest 2,850 / 14,250 btc)

Bitmex Futures: (Sep) $6714 (Dec) $6722

SENTIMENT

Longs / Shorts: 34,500 / 24,100 (1.44)


Gold prices

In general, I’m 5 year bullish, 20 year bearish

0.2 btc

Range bound

Above a long term support line back from 2009 through 2016 lows, 2017 lows

Below $1375 resistance.

Ascending triangle is usually bearish

Central banks will go to a gold backed crypto.

I’d expect range bound until sovereign debt crisis

There’s a new theory about China controlling the gold price and pegging it to the CNYUSD price.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1531252121.php

Bloomberg Crypto reserve regulation

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-16/banks-crypto-assets-may-get-hit-with-new-capital-requirements


MARKET – TXS

Market Cap: $115 B

Global Bitcoin MC: $271 B

Maximalist Price: $15,800

On chain vol (24h): 1.2 mil btc ($8.2B)

Avg tx val (24h): 5.52 btc ($37 k)

Median tx Val (24h): 0.065 btc ($435)    


MINING

Difficulty: est. -3.54% (last 3: 5%, 2%, 15%)

Mining profitability: $0.34 THash/day

Blockchain size: 206 GB

Mempool: 3.5MB

Median on chain fee: $0.14/tx

We’ve seen a slight uptick in the mempool

1.5mb of 1 sat/b txs pending.

Bcash has been 20% less profitable for 3 weeks, sometimes 30%

ASICBoost can be 25% according to Dr Adam Back. https://medium.com/@jimmysong/mining-profitability-and-asicboost-ffdb779ef6dd


DEVELOPMENT

Merged PRs    : 29

Closed issues : 22


LIGHTNING

Capacity: 80 btc

Channels: 9311

Nodes: 2789

Channels/node: 3.33

Cap/channel:

Cap/node:

Max channel capacity is 0.16 btc.

Some guy that owns shitcoin.com a Bcasher maybe, has put in like 40 btc. It might be an attack, or used to FUD.


GOOGLE TRENDS

12 Mo.  : 9 /100

30days : 65 /100

Trend    : Both these time periods are showing reduced interest again. There has been a frenzy of media lately around Trump, so that could explain it, but this isn’t good for this rally. Be careful for the effects of FUD. Overly bullish out there.


REGULAR SOURCES

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Music by Joakim Karud and ChinBeatz

**DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice, do your own research.**

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