Bitcoin Price and Fundamentals Analysis – 9/28/18 – E134

Top story line: End of Q3 in the green? CME and Bitmex deliveries today. Sentiment is even coming back from overly bearish, don’t be too optimistic about the altcoin relief rally, and the status of the bitcoin bug, Bakkt and bitcoin infrastructure.

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PRICES
  • Price: $6658
  • 1 finney: $0.67
  • $1: 1.50 finneys | 15000 sats
  • Daily 200 SMA: $7365
  • Mayer Multiple: 0.90

Commentary

Q3 opened at $6343 on bitfinex. We are solidly green for the quarter. Can we stop with this bear market stuff?

FUTURES
  • Okex Futures: (Dec) $6624 | spread -$25
  • CME Futures: Oct $6615 | Nov $6575 | open interest 2,713 / 13,565 btc
  • Bitmex Futures: Dec $6603

Commentary

Expiration/delivery happens today. I’m watching the CME Sept contract delivery today at 3 central.


SENTIMENT
  • Longs / Shorts: 30,500 / 29,100 (1.04)

Commentary

Shorts have trickled off. Ratio back to even. Lower volume, hesitant to open positions.


MARKET
  • Market Cap: $115B
  • Global Bitcoin MC: $221B
  • Maximalist Price: $12,781
  • Volatility 30-day: 2.33%
  • On chain vol (24h): 980,000 btc | $6.5B
  • Avg tx val (24h): 3.8 btc | $25,300 k
  • Median tx Val (24h): 0.045 btc | $297

Commentary

Altcoins have pumped. Centered around Ripple, Bcash and Stellar. All the worst shitcoins. Ethereum hasn’t budged vs btc. When they rollover again be careful of the coins that didn’t pump.


MINING
  • Difficulty: est 7% See report
  • Halvening: 86,563 blocks | 562 days | Apr.12.2020

Commentary

Last adjustment was below sweet spot marking a trough in price. Bitmain announcement and IPO was fake news. Mining centralization is not a thing at the moment (or ever?), because market forces keep them balanced.

DEVELOPMENT

TRENDS

Interest for Google searches of “bitcoin” still show general disinterest. But the trend isn’t continuing to fall lower at this time.


NEWS

“What Bakkt aims to solve as a first step” 

Here to fix bitcoin

Bcash double spends

Google-backed startup

Bitcoin friendly banks


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**DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice, do your own research.**

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