- Volume and volatility is back
- Bakkt rekkt the market?
- Hashrate capitulation
- Google trends is showing a lot more interest
- Lightning capacity skyrockets
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Bakkt delay in a low volume market, after several days of dumping, is either dumb or an attempt to manipulate.
Bakkt has to buy bitcoin to settle these contracts. Market makers have to buy the bitcoin, want to buy lower. But don’t have regulatory approval.
Price has seriously pulled back, breaking major support to the down side. We had a confluence of factors from the much hyped, but waste of time Hash War in bcash, to a big increase in hit-pieces from the legacy financial media, to Bakkt delaying their launch for over a month into next year.
Futures spreads are very tight, even with the large drop in price, telling me no one really has a strong feeling on the immediate direction in price. Of course, when that’s the case, the trend is your friend, so it would signal further price declines near term.
The sentiment ratio is back below 1, but has showed suprising lack of interest in general with the sum total of positions on bitfinex still very low. It’s also important to mention here that we have seen an undersized increase in the amount of shorts during this sell off, which tells me the price action isn’t organic if you will.
The hashrate continues to decline. The next adjustment, next week, is estimated to be another -7% change. This is significant, because many miners are finding it more cost effective to simply buy the bitcoin, instead of mine it.
There’s also the effect of the Hash Wars. The misguided folks mining the bcash forks are burning through their money, only making themselves poorer.
Lightning Network capacity has exploded higher in the last week, up approx. 400% to 440 btc. The number of lightning nodes continues to increase at a steady rate. It seems as though there’s some activity happening that we haven’t heard about yet. Maybe some stealth infrastructure that we’ll hear about in a few weeks time, idk.
Searches for “bitcoin” have increased dramatically over the last week. Compared to other industry terms like blockchain, ethereum and ripple, we see much higher interest in bitcoin. I’ve always said this is a leading indicator, however, at this time we have price action coming from outside it’s normal organic sources. Overall, this is a bullish fundamental, but it might take a while to show in the price.
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**DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice, do your own research.**