Market Commentary #49

Published as part of Issue #49 of the Bitcoin Pulse on 4/13/2020. Join for more full technical and fundamental analysis.

A New Reality is Setting In

The holiday weekend was a depressing one for many. Over the past month, on stay at home orders, people have been coming to grips with the current situation (what readers of this newsletter did back in February). Perusing the headlines and social media over the long holiday weekend, I got the feeling a shift is occurring in our thinking. Instead of coming to grips with the current situation, people are starting to process their thoughts about the future.

Little will be the same after all this. Our comfortable materialist traditions (like Easter) we’ve come to expect over the last few decades are going to be drastically altered. Many supply chains will never return as production returns regional, trust in national governments will weaken, debts will be a heavy burden as incomes drop, cheap labor won’t be a selling point if no one is buying. If you thought the populism of the last 5 years was something, wait until you see the next 5 years. The lock downs have unleashed a pissed off electorate.

On the investment side, where do you put your capital, what kind of jobs will be good during this Great Depression 2.0? Here are some of the things I’m thinking about in a stream of consciousness. We always need staples, food, shelter, energy. Investments in staples with high dividends should do okay. Expensive entertainment will suffer, Vegas and the Disney parks could be ghost towns. Home appliances will be hot and a center of innovation as your home becomes more important. Internet infrastructure and online productivity will be in demand. Innovation in low cost travel. Handyman skills will be in high demand. Smart phone ruggedness versus flashiness (keys might come back gasp). Bullish Midwest, bearish California. And of course, savings over debt.

Bitcoin and gold will become bigger parts of all portfolios, key to a savings mindset. Stacking sats will be the cool thing to do.

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