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Bitcoin Minute: Bitcoin Cycles and US Presidential Elections

Examining the Impact of Halvings and U.S. Elections on Bitcoin Price Movements

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The Presidential Election Effect

This topic came up in relation to this tweet from Quinten Francois.

Do US Presidential elections really drive the bitcoin cycles? It looks like there is a relationship at first glance, but not shown are the halvings.

Upon closer inspection, you can clearly see that the green 2020-2021 line is shifted slightly to the left of the blue line. This is because the halving occurred earlier, not due to the U.S. election. The shift was approximately two months earlier, whereas this time, it was less than a month earlier.

Halving Plus Presidential Elections

There were also other complexities in 2020, such as massive leverage from scam projects and exchanges. Additionally, COVID stimulus checks were issued that year, allowing retail investors to "ape into" Bitcoin and altcoins. This contributed to a more rapid price rise in 2020 compared to 2016.

The separation of the halving and the US elections might have some indirect impact on Bitcoin's price, leading to an early significant peak before the halving. We observed this pattern in both 2019 and 2024.

If we follow the halving timeline alone, the price should start moving up and be well above the current all-time high by the next election—potentially reaching as high as $100,000. However, if the true driving force is a combination of the halving supply squeeze and the U.S. elections, then the price would likely remain relatively flat, without a major breakout, until after the election.

Hope this helps someone.

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