My Model: Making Sense of Ukraine - E238b


This is the second episode of the week, covering my personal model by which I evaluate the market and important geopolitical news. The main outline can be found on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report #183.

A high level outline of my model includes geographic determinism, geopolitical realism, Austrian economics and an economics graduate degree, and military experience.

More specifically, I cover several points of my model.

  1. The US is the dominant economy and political power and will remain so for the foreseeable future, due simply to geographic superiority.
  2. Geography dictates culture and economy in the long run. There can be short term deviations around a mean, like a generation or two, but in the long run we all return to historical norms.
  3. The Rest of the World (RoW) is was built up during the last 75 years of US dominance and political stability.
  4. Demographics will compound the credit bubble collapse and the end of US trade and security subsidy. The US has the best demographics of almost any developed economy.
  5. Populism is on the rise and opposes Globalism. Europe is the home of Davos and globalism (globalization), because European populism is very dangerous. Trump and Putin are populist leaders, that is why the globalists hate them. But populism can't be stopped.
  6. Western media are liars. You are better off believing the opposite of what the MSM wants you to. Censored opinions expose MSM lies directly, so you can pick out the important lies that way.

After I layout these ideas, I spend about 10 mins applying them to the Russia/Ukraine situation.

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