Bitcoin Minute: Historical Price Performance During Bitcoin Conferences
In this post, I want to take a look at the historic performance of bitcoin during the Bitcoin Magazine conferences. I'm going into this not knowing exactly what we'll find, but I have a feeling it will be generally bearish. Whatever we find, it doesn't necessarily mean this year will be the same, of course, but it's good information to have.
2019 Conference, June 25-26 in San Francisco
The 2019 cycle was unique. There was a massive pump off the bottom, peaking and ultimately sliding into the COVID crash prior to the halving. The 2019 Conference marked the absolute pico-top to the day. WOW.
2021 Conference, June 4-5 in Miami
I attended the 2021 conference where Nayib Bukele announced that they would be making Bitcoin legal tender. The conference was so big, the stage room was standing room only and the fire department was kicking people out of the building because it was over capacity.
I remember thinking in 2021 that it marked the point where bitcoin became more than magic internet money. It became a huge deal at that conference.
Despite all that, there was no influence on price at all.
2022 Conference, April 6-9 in Miami
The 2022 conference happened right before all the leverage collapses of crypto scam companies that caused the 2022 bear market. The bullishness and attention of the bitcoin conference didn't affect price at all. FTX was a major sponsor and shitcoins were everywhere to be honest. This was the conference that introduced the Bitcoin Bull.
2023 Conference, May 18-20 in Miami
The huge bitcoin 2023 conference took place during the first stages of the current bull market. Bitcoin had been battling with breaking $30k for weeks prior and the conference did not have a notable impact. This year was interesting because RFK and Vivek spoke, showing the first glimpses of bitcoin entering politics, yet no price action.
What will happen this year?
Many people are expecting Trump to announce a US Bitcoin Reserve. I'm somewhat skeptical of this. It is perhaps the case that he will institute one when he becomes President again, but why would he announce it early, allowing so many people to front run?
If history repeats itself, we should expect the price to be weak and continue in this consolidation.
It is true that today Bitcoin has many more fundamental tailwinds than during previous conferences, so maybe that will result in a different outcome. The ETFs are gobbling up BTC, Trump is promoting mining and holding, several banks are now able to custody bitcoin off-balance sheet, and billion dollar companies are adding bitcoin to their cash reserves. Therefore a surprise positive announcement from Trump could massively affect price.
The Bitcoin Conferences are billed as large attention events that really push bitcoin forward, but an examination of the charts tells a different story. At best, the price of bitcoin is indifferent to the conference. At worst, it has a negative impact.
Hold strong and have a great day,
Ansel
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