Bitcoin Insider #323

January 20, 2025 | Block 87x,xxx

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Snapshot of Bitcoin

Inauguration Day! Trump To Sign Many Executive Orders Day One

Trump is the first Pro-Bitcoin President, but did not mention it in his inauguration address. That does not necessarily mean he will not issue an executive order today or tomorrow regarding bitcoin. The thing we are all waiting for is details on his policy about a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). The most likely initial policy will be to designate the existing bitcoin held by the US government, approximately 200,000 BTC as that reserve.

The most simple thing that bitcoiners are waiting on is the commutation of Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I wrote about this here on Forbes. Of course, it is understandable that there are several other points of business that need to be taken care of first. He is in a physically dangerous and politically precarious state as he enters office. Military, border, and anti-deep state orders will come first, but then Ross and a Bitcoin policy will hopefully come by the end of the day.

Another area that most people are discounting is the overturning of the SEC's rule SAB 121, which prohibits banks from holding bitcoin for clients. That will end immediately as well, opening up millions or billions of dollar in demand to flow in.

The next 48 hours will be wild!

More US States To Vote On Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

This week, bitcoin reserve bills were introduced in Wyoming and Massachusetts. A California state official announced plans to introduce a bitcoin reserve bill, as well. Everything is happening so fast. Even the bluest of states are starting to follow. Soon it'll be a stampede.

FDIC Is Attempting to Destroy Evidence In Bitcoin Crusade

More on the Operation Choke Point 2.0 saga. If you are unaware, OCP 2.0 is the now obvious conspiracy against crypto by lawmakers, regulators and banks. The problem I have with it, is the extension to bitcoin. Once again, crypto scammers are trying to include bitcoin in the target list, which it was really the target, in order to get special treatment.

Of course, we now have a pro-crypto administration, so the flood gates are opening. Trump weekend drama surrounding the launch of $Trump coin, it's massive rise and crash, is just an example of what was being prevented by OCP 2.0.

Raoul Pal Hates On MSTR, Destroyed By Pleb Remix

This guy still has a following for some reason. I saw this in reaction to recent comments by Raoul dissing on MicroStrategy. He went down the scammer route, instead of innovating a bitcoin-only strategy like Saylor. This video shows just how much of scammer he is.

Macro

The End Of The Globalist Order Is Over And They Know It

Secretary Of State nominee Marco Rubio breaks it down well. We are heading into a multipolar world. This is what I have been saying for years and years. Soon the world will wake up to the reality that globalization over, and a multipolar world order is dawning.

This new order will be characterized by other countries having to pay for their own defense and trade. A breakdown in the rules that have governed and made possible globalization. The Unipolar World dividend is over.

Giorgia Meloni Oration Unleashed Calling for EU Capital To Be Moved To Rome

“Rome should be the capital of the European Union, because the capital of the European Union cannot be the most comfortable place to set up offices, but the place that represents its millennial identity.”

Central banks' green push hits a hurdle as Fed drops out

A global effort by central banks to join the fight against climate change has hit a major hurdle with the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to leave a club devoted to policing environmental risk in finance.

The Fed said on Friday it would quit the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) because it had "broadened in scope, covering a wider range of issues that are outside of the (Fed's) statutory mandate".

This should not be a surprise. The climate agenda is one of the global Marxists only remaining planks. Wall Street/The Federal Reserve has switched sides for now and will not be going along with them. Powell has already said as much as was said in this statement years ago. Climate focused considerations are outside the Fed's mandate.

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Bitcoin Charts

Last week:

"My base case for this week is recovery toward the ATH."

From my worst weekly forecast two weeks ago to one of my best. We tapped an ATH prior the the inauguration.

Updating the December 2023 to February 2024 pattern I introduced three weeks ago. We are back on track.

One of the most surprising developments over the last 24 hours was the 6% rally in just 21 minutes at 1:30 AM ET last night on impressive volume. This type of move implies a significant buy from where. Whale are staking positions.

I wanted to throw these price predictions in here for the end of 2025. Most center around $200k.

The way I break this down is a reverse multiple, that is for every dollar that comes into bitcoin, how much does the market cap rise by. Back in 2017, Bank of America estimated that to 117x in the parabolic phase of the bull market. We can take a conservative estimate and say 20-50x for the entire bull market.

A $200k estimate is a $4.2 trillion market cap, or $1.2 trillion more than today. Dividing by the multiple, we can arrive at what this forecast implies about inflows into bitcoin. That is $24 - 60B if we assume a 20-50x multiple. Last year already saw more than that, so I think that is a low ball number.

Even assuming the lower multiple of 20x, we should expect a much higher price than $200k. Since there was $36B inflows for the ETFs alone in 2024, not including MSTR, Tether, miners and other buyers. As the bull market progresses the pace of flows should only increase. Therefore, I'm going to estimate 2025 will see $100-200B inflows. At $200B and a multiple of 20x, that means the market cap will increase a minimum of $4 trillion up to $5 trillion by the end of 2025. That will put price at $238k. This is a lower end estimate. With a higher average multiple, it will be much higher. At a 50x, is $11 trillion market cap or $523,000 at a higher end.

Back to this week.

My base case for this week is a slow decline in price until a policy is announced by Trump, at which point price should rally toward $120k. A few of my indicators are extremely bullish, and one is signaling consolidation possible. More on that in a premium post. Nothing is signaling a significant pull back in price is imminent.

MUCH MORE detailed price analysis, including short, medium and long-term forecasts on Market Protons!

Headlines

Michael Saylor, Marathon meet with Trump team aligning with possible Bitcoin reserve

This week, large US public bitcoin miner Marathon had a meeting with Trump and Michael Saylor.

"Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, and key executives from Marathon Digital, a prominent Bitcoin mining firm, have engaged with representatives of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration.

The meeting, held during a reception hosted by Vice President JD Vance, signals potential movement in Bitcoin policy under the new administration.

While details of the discussions remain private, industry observers speculate the talks may revolve around advancing Bitcoin mining in the United States."

I think this was a strategy meeting about possible policy around bitcoin mining. There was a rumor floating around after this that Trump is considering making bitcoin mining tax free, but that is likely a stretch IMO. Bitcoin mining would thrive in a free market, so simply a friendly administration will go along way to making the US an attractive destination for miners.

Hash rate and Difficulty

The bitcoin hash rate has backed off this week. However, there has not much time to react to last night's 6% price rally. Overall, the hash rate is stable, but slightly down on the week.

If this continues as price goes higher, we must take it as a serious signal that not all is well with the price. The hash rate should confirm the price movement. If price is going up, miners should add more hash rate. However, if they are not, that could be a sign of something deeper in the market being not as it seems.

Mempool

The mempool has started expanding again. This could signal the start of renewed interest by investors. When new buyers are entering the market, market makers will be sending bitcoin to exchanges, and new buyers will be taking bitcoin off exchanges. Search term traffic for "bitcoin" backs this up to a degree. The recent slow search period has now started to grow again.

In Case You Missed It...

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* Price change since last report

** According to mempool.space or 1ml.com