Retail Traders Are Coming: New Google Trends Data For Bitcoin
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The Bull Market Trigger
Last week on a live stream, I predicted that the next big breakout in bitcoin would require a new catalyst to ignite the market. While the MicroStrategy mania has reached a fever pitch, it’s not enough on its own to serve as the catalyst IMO, for reasons I go into below. On the stream, I speculated that retail traders jumping in at the $100k level could finally set this rally on fire.
Yes, bitcoin’s price has rallied significantly, but it has not yet surpassed a big psychological test. As I’ve said before, once price moves above the previous ATH, it often accelerates quickly due to a lack of structural resistance. However, the $100k milestone is different. It’s the first six-figure price—a psychological barrier that could draw in retail traders who typically lack the discipline of institutional players.
So far, retail traders have been noticeably absent this cycle, and their absence has created interesting dynamics. First, it has kept altcoins surprisingly quiet. Without retail traders, altcoins have failed to steal attention from bitcoin or muddy the market with the usual pump-and-dump scams. Altcoins rely heavily on less sophisticated buyers, and in their absence, they’ve languished.
Second, institutional buyers have dominated bitcoin this cycle, employing sophisticated trading strategies—using Over-the-Counter (OTC), futures, and options to accumulate bitcoin slowly and with minimal price disruption. Retail traders, however, operate differently. They’re more impulsive, often hitting the Market Buy button without considering limit orders or nuanced strategies. Groups like WallStreetBets have shown how retail frenzy can intentionally drive prices higher, creating chaos in the order books and blowing past key resistance levels.
Now, the question is: Is retail finally arriving? There are signs, including increased chatter from altcoins, as well as Google Trends data.
Altcoins Waking Up A Little
Over the past few weeks, bitcoin’s price spike has been accompanied by a slight uptick in altcoin activity. Anecdotally, I’ve noticed more chatter from the Ripple Army on X, increased hopium from Ethereum holders, and even a new Ethereum roadmap.
While some spillover from bitcoin to altcoins is expected during a rally, this relationship has been unusually muted so far this cycle. As the Bitcoin Dominance chart shows, altcoins have failed to keep up with bitcoin’s momentum. While there isn’t a striking resurgence in altcoins, there’s a subtle shift in market sentiment that suggests they’re starting to wake up.
Google Trends for Bitcoin and Buy Bitcoin
Google Trends data provides another clue. Search interest for “bitcoin” has surged from lows typically found in a bear market to a two-year high, marking a clear shift in sentiment.
Notably, this spike began the day after the U.S. election, coinciding with bitcoin’s price rally.
Even more telling is the spike in searches for “buy bitcoin.” This indicates that interest isn’t just academic—people are actively looking to purchase bitcoin. The combination of these search trends suggests that retail traders, who have been largely absent this cycle, may finally be gearing up to re-enter the market.
The Missing Ingredient
I have been surprised that, despite the significant amount of bitcoin removed from the market by ETFs and MicroStrategy, the price still hasn’t broken through $100k. This is largely due to the trading behavior of institutional players, whose restrained approach has kept the rally orderly but lacks the explosive momentum that retail traders can provide.
Retail traders are the missing ingredient, and it appears they’re finally paying attention. Their impulsive buying behavior could pierce the carefully constructed order books maintained by institutional players, causing prices to surge through key resistance levels.
The convergence of these factors—institutional accumulation, the introduction of new investment vehicles with explosive recursive volatility profiles, and the re-emergence of retail interest—creates the perfect recipe for higher prices. Together, these elements could propel bitcoin through the $100k barrier and into a new six-figure era.
Hope this helps someone.
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