Market Commentary #49

The holiday weekend was a depressing one for many. Over the past month, on stay at home orders, people have been coming to grips with the current situation (what readers of this newsletter did back in February). Perusing the headlines and social media over the long holiday weekend, I got the feeling a shift is occurring in our thinking. Instead of coming to grips with the current situation, people are starting to process their thoughts about the future.

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The Fundamentals Report #84 – 4/10/2020

The Greatest Depression has started. We won’t sugar coat things, it’s going to get much worse before it gets better. While the stock market and other asset prices have stabilized for the time being, fundamentals like unemployment and productivity are still collapsing. We are in the eye of the storm.

Market Commentary #48

Traditional markets are in the eye of the storm. They are enjoying a rally that won’t last. The virus panic, which our benevolent leaders induced, is starting to subside (by design?). The Chinese strategy of lock downs and fabricated numbers to manage public reaction, has been copied to a T. But fake numbers can create productivity.

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Bitcoin Market Commentary, Read Through – E210

Hi Bitcoiners, I’m reading through my Friday newsletter The Fundamentals Report #83 along with my extra commentary. Topics covered are the virus and effects of lock downs and shortages in gold and the dollar. I also talk about how bitcoin fits into this market. I touch on bitcoin price analysis, stablecoins, unemployment in the US, and network stats.

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The Fundamentals Report #83 – 4/3/2020

Several interesting threads have developed this week. People questioning the government story of the coronavirus and the need for the lock downs and shortages in gold and dollar. The Bitcoin specific news cycle is slow. It’s chugging along. As we’ve said in the past, Bitcoin is in its own world, only affected by deep fundamental cracks in the traditional system.

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General Update, Virus, Dollar, China and Japan – E209

In this episode I discuss the bullish case for bitcoin being driven by QE but not via a weaker dollar. The dollar will continue to strengthen in a volatile way. Bitcoin will be bid because the traditional market will get worse and worse at price discovery and bitcoin will get better and better. I bring in two articles. The first one is about China’s consumer credit bubble popping and the second is about primary dealers in Japan refusing to sell their JGB’s to the Bank of Japan. That effectively stops QE as a weapon of the central bank. The primary dealers would rather use their JGB’s in dollar swaps with the Fed.

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A Devalued Government – E208

In this episode I use a tweet by Pierre Rochard and a video from Daniel Hannan as a jumping off point to talk about globalization, the growing distrust in our institutions, non-monetary rewards, and what this current crisis will lead to.

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Fed Panic, Dollar Melt Up – E206

In this episode, I break the news that the Fed has cut interest rates to zero and launched QE 5. The Fed is not in charge of interest rates, they follow the market. Interest rates were already close to zero in the market, so this move by the Fed was reactionary. They have lost control. I also talk about currency swaps and how to position yourself for the coming financial reset.